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Written by David Orrell In a 1904 paper on weather forecasting, the Norwegian physicist and meteorologist Vilhelm Bjerknes noted that the accuracy of a predictive model depends on two things: “1. A sufficiently accurate knowledge of the state of the atmosphere at the initial time. 2. A sufficiently accurate knowledge of the laws according to which one state of the atmosphere develops from another.” Or in...

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Written by David Orrell As discussed in the last post, models have two functions – to describe, and to predict. In systems biology, and other areas of science, these are often conflated. We say a model is predictive, when really we mean it is descriptive. But prediction – from the Latin praedicere for “make known beforehand” – is not the same as just reproducing something that...

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Written by David Orrell.    The Virtual Tumour (“VT”) is the main program we use at Physiomics to optimise oncology treatments and predict the effects of drug combinations. This post is the first in a series that will describe the aims, motivations, and some of the history of the project – and gives a peek at the mathematics inside. Today’s topic: why we built the model. The VT,...

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